Distressed debt investing has been recognized as a distinct investment style for over the last two decades. Over that period, returns have outperformed most traditional asset classes with lower volatility, with the HFR distressed index providing 12.7% annualized returns vs. 8.0% for the S&P 500.
In this report we begin by outlining the return characteristics and styles of distressed investing. One of the questions that investors ask about distressed investing is whether they should view distressed investing as merely a cyclical / opportunistic allocation or if one can make a profitable long term allocation to the asset class.
There is no question that distressed investing follows the economic and credit cycles, with periods of extraordinary opportunities and returns. However, we make the case that, to be successful, one needs to have an ongoing allocation in order to be involved in the early stages of the opportunities that arise.
Because most classic distressed investing is inherently a secondary market strategy, there is a “J-curve” effect whereas the the critical mass of debt instruments is transferred from par buyers to distressed investors well-before the bottom of the market. Moreover, there are always idiosyncratic opportunities that arise at any stage of the credit cycle.
Finally, after reviewing the investment analytics applicable to distressed investing in developed and emerging markets, we provide an overview of the market elements we see that should give rise to an extremely large opportunity set for profitable distressed investing over the next five years.
Distressed investing, at its most basic level, is a form of deep value investing typically with an event-driven element as well. Distressed investing can take many forms, although these days it is usually used in connection with distressed debt.
One of the more widely accepted definitions of “distressed debt” is generally attributed to Martin Fridson, one of the deans of high-yield bond analysis. Mr. Fridson classified distressed debt as debt trading with a yield to maturity of greater than 1000 basis points more than the comparable underlying treasury security. Another commonly used criterion is debt that trades below 80 cents on the dollar.
However, the distressed debt universe includes many other types of securities with different market prices, including defaulted fixed income instruments, stressed performing bonds, below-par bank loans, “busted” convertibles, credit default swaps, NPL portfolios, and post-restructuring equity, to name a few.
Distressed investing, sometimes pejoratively referred to as “vulture investing,” began to be recognized as a distinct investment style in the late 1980s/early 1990s with the problems with the US thrift industry and the collapse of the burgeoning high yield debt market and Drexel Burnham Lambert in 1990, followed by the success of investors in the mid-1990s involved with the Resolution Trust Corporation and other forms of distressed investing.
Distressed investors can find value across the full credit cycle and their performance is mostly driven by both the overall credit market and idiosyncratic credit events. Performance tends to be better during and after economic turnarounds when spreads tighten. This is when the profits from the successful restructuring can be reaped.
Distressed hedge funds can make money in all stages of the market cycle, by shorting overvalued securities in frothy markets and by moving to extremely high levels of cash in order to maintain the “dry powder” necessary to take advantage of when the market turns and opportunities arise.
Distressed investors can find value across the full credit cycle and their performance is mostly driven by both the overall credit market and idiosyncratic credit events. Performance tends to be better during and after economic turnarounds when spreads tighten. This is when the profits from the successful restructuring can be reaped.
A passive strategy is more trading oriented and investment managers do not receive non-public information. As such, they are not engaged in the restructuring negotiations and are not locked from selling their securities. The strategy tends to focus on larger companies with liquid securities with a shorter time frame to exit. Passive managers view the asset class from a cyclical standpoint and typically invest opportunistically. Passive managers can also make money by shorting securities they believe will decline in price.
The active approach is divided between non-control and control. Active non-control investors are often members of a creditor committee but typically do not lead the restructuring. They will likely receive non-public information and, as such, be restricted from selling their securities until after the restructuring process is complete. Active control managers will look to influence the process through a blocking position (size depends on the jurisdiction of the bankruptcy). They also look to play an active role by taking a seat on the board of a company and work closely with management. Both non-control and control active investors view the asset class in all credit environments.
